"China's Wind Energy Initiatives to Receive Subsidies in 2020 or Face Phased Elimination"

On October 19, the "China Wind Power Development Road Map 2050" was officially unveiled, outlining ambitious goals for the country's wind energy sector. By 2050, it is projected that China's wind power capacity will reach 1 billion kilowatts, fulfilling approximately 17% of the nation’s electricity demand. Furthermore, it is anticipated that from 2020 onwards, the cost of wind power will fall below that of coal power, leading to a gradual phase-out of the current wind power subsidy policies.

During the Beijing International Wind Energy Conference and Exhibition 2011, Wang Zhongying, the deputy director of the Energy Research Institute under the National Development and Reform Commission, shared insights from the newly released road map.

Wang highlighted that over the next four decades, both onshore and offshore wind energy will undergo significant development. From 2030 to 2050, the annual increase in installed capacity is expected to be around 30 million kilowatts, which will constitute approximately half of the total new capacity added in the country.

The roadmap sets specific targets for wind power capacity at three key milestones: 200 million kilowatts by 2020, 400 million kilowatts by 2030, and 1 billion kilowatts by 2050. This expansion aims to position wind energy as a major contributor to China's energy mix, meeting 17% of the electricity needs by 2050.

The future development strategy emphasizes a focus on onshore wind power until 2020, accompanied by initial offshore wind power demonstrations. Between 2021 and 2030, both onshore and offshore projects will be prioritized equally, with further offshore demonstrations. From 2031 to 2050, development will extend across eastern, central, and western regions, enhancing both onshore and nearshore wind power capabilities.

By 2050, it is estimated that China's total power consumption will reach 13 trillion kilowatt-hours. With the current advancements in wind power technology, the country possesses sufficient wind energy resources to support over 1 billion kilowatts of installed capacity.

In 2010, China's cumulative installed wind power capacity was reported at 41.46 million kilowatts, with 31.13 million kilowatts connected to the grid. That year, wind power contributed approximately 50 billion kilowatt-hours to the national grid, representing 1.2% of the total electricity consumption of 4.2 trillion kilowatt-hours.

Han Wenke, director of the Energy Development Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, remarked that the roadmap serves as a forecast and framework for the future of the wind power industry, providing valuable guidance for governmental planning and policy formulation.

Since 2006, China has employed a fixed tariff system for wind power, which mandates that the on-grid price for wind energy exceeds that of coal-fired electricity, funded through renewable energy initiatives. Additionally, subsidies for wind farms are determined based on their distance from existing transmission lines, ranging from 0.01 to 0.03 yuan per kilowatt.

Wang Zhongying noted that the current development costs for onshore wind power are estimated between 0.35 and 0.5 yuan per kilowatt-hour, with corresponding tariff levels set between 0.51 and 0.61 yuan per kilowatt-hour. He pointed out that, under the existing pricing structure, coal power costs do not account for environmental impacts, making wind energy comparatively more expensive.

However, he expressed optimism that as coal prices rise in China, the cost of wind power will align with that of coal by 2020. At that point, without considering the expenses associated with long-distance transmission, wind power is expected to be cheaper than coal.